Andrew Williams - North Shore Mayor

Andrew Williams appeared with Mike Hosking tonight on Close Up defending his position over the rumoured late night texts. It’s one of those situations of either you believe him, or you don’t. Each side seemed to have evidence that supported their own claims.

Rodney Hide, Andrew Williams, John Key

Everyone except John Key. Interviewed on Breakfast he appeared as vague as he always does when trying to evade specific questioning. He adopts exactly the tone he did when he “couldn’t remember having an opinion about the Springbok Tour of 1981″. All I can see is a man squirming and looking uncomfortable and evasive.

Williams has evidence that he only texted John Key at 12.16pm (two months ago) just after the house rose from urgency - so presumably John Key was awake at the time. But then Williams disingenuously claimed that he ‘couldn’t recall’ sending a text at 3.30am and that if he had it was longer than 4 months ago - which seems beside the point.

At the end of the interview Williams claimed this was all an ACT conspiracy to discredit him and to push the Super City - a shoot the messenger scenario. Maybe he’s right. Williams certainly has the knife out for Rodney Hide asking, under the OIA, for records on the actual meetings that took place while Hide was away with his girlfriend. Turns out there were not many.

This saga will continue until Andrew Williams is out of a job - which may be sooner rather than later.

National, All Blacks, Labour, France

I’m half way through reading Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner’s book Freakonomics. The book is tagged with the line “A rogue economist explores the hidden side of everything”.

Levitt poses the weirdest questions, which he already knows the answers to, such as:

1. What do schoolteachers and sumo wrestlers have in common?
2. How is the Ku Klux Klan like a group of real estate agents?
3. Why do drug dealers still live with their moms?

I can’t help thinking he would be able to provide a great answer to this question:

What do National (and the Mt Albert bi-election) and the All Blacks have in common?

Here are my attempts:

A: The points differential between the All Blacks and France nearly represented the percentage of the vote that Melissa Lee won as a National candidate for Mt Albert.

The 5 points difference divided by the 27 points scored by the French equals 18.5% which is close to the 17% that Melissa Lee scored in Mt Albert. Whether this is relevant is a moot point but I feel clever having made the calculation.

A: Quoting from Stuff “…The All Blacks’ inexperience was also badly exposed. As ever they were rusty in their opening hit-out of the campaign, but they made numerous errors and never showed the composure needed to withstand the sort of assault the French dished up.” Swap every instance of All Blacks with Melissa Lee, and every instance of ‘French’ with Labour and the Mt Albert story is identical.

Perhaps the only difference between the National Party experience of the bi-election and the All Blacks experience at Carisbrook will be that tomorrow morning Graham Henry will front up and defend his team (without making excuses) whereas John Key will try to ignore and bury the fact that he hand picked Melissa Lee and that he left her high and dry with no support.

Graham Henry revved his team up at half-time. That was never the case for Melissa from John Key. He coached in absentia. You will never win a game like that.

Push Play stopped

The Sunday Star Times reported on May 3 that John Key and the National Government are following through on overhauling the sporting sector. This includes cutting budgets at SPARC, the agency that gave us Push Play and Mission On.

The jury is out on Mission On and whether it has provided impetus to young people to do things other than sit in front of a television or computer screen. Ironically Mission On was based around a website, and so Key immediately dismissed it as being a waste of tax money. In fact, Key suggested they could provide sporting equipment to every primary school in the country for the money spent on the Mission On site. This may have been true but it takes teachers to teach, and giving kids soccer balls is less than half the solution. And what do the 28,268 kiwi kids who have signed up to Mission On do once the website is closed down. National would have them join the local rugby club.

The Push Play campaign has surely been successful in getting New Zealanders to think about making healthy choices. “Take the stairs instead of the lift”, “Exercise for 30 minutes every day”…all of these little homilies, that I remember, are as a result of the long term Push Play campaign.

It seems ludicrous to me that a government that will, and is, witnessing an increase in obesity and associated health problems is removing this sort of encouragement from our daily lives. They say they will concentrate on providing funding to sports clubs. This will only target some of New Zealand.

The effectiveness of campaigns like Push Play and Mission On are difficult to measure. But that doesn’t mean we should throw them out.

SPARC are now going to align their strategy with National’s objectives - concentrating on school sport, children’s sport, high performance development and identification of our next sporting heroes. Anyone not already a member of a sports club will undoubtedly miss out.

Rodney Hide and a National Government

Is anyone worried about Rodney Hide?

I watched him on Sunday tonight - what an arrogant and demanding man. No grace, no poise - this is what we want and this is what we’ll get. John Key stared blankly back. I’d live to know what was going on in his mind…

Compare Rodney’s performance to Pita Sharples of the Maori Party. Pita did not make one request of John Key. He said they had a ‘portfolio’ that they would present to Key on Tuesday, but other than that they would wait and see where the negotiations headed. He even avoided the question of whether they would accept a seat at the cabinet table.

Contrast that with Rodney Hide who sat there bulldozing John Key with demands he implement the ‘three strikes and you’re out’ policy as well as cutting government spending and scrapping the Emissions Trading Scheme.

• Key has already announced he’s making a big spending promise with the April 2009 tax-cuts
• National opposed the ETS but has expressed interest in reforming the current scheme, so there will still be one
• And it remains to be seen how staunch National will be on law and order, but likely not to be as staunch as ACT would like.

So, can National and ACT work together? If National invites the Maori Party in (and the Maori Party accept) then they don’t need ACT.

Close of business Tuesday will reveal all.

New Zealand Election Results 2008

10.20pm:
The election result is panning out as the media has been predicting - a victory for National.

Winston Peters is delivering his concession speech - beaten resoundingly by the young Simon Bridges (majority of 10,862 to national with 89.5% of the vote counted). Winston delivered a gracious speech congratulating Tauranga for voting in a young and vibrant politician. It seems that Winston and NZ First are now out of politics. It remains to be seen if they can maintain momentum as a party without any representation in Parliament. Peters has been there for 30 years - he left the stage saying that was his last word.

10.23pm:
Darren Hughes (Labour) has lost Otaki to National’s Nathan Guy by a margin of 1422. Josie Pagani of Jim Anderton’s Progressive polled 206 votes. Keep an eye out for her in 2011.

10.28pm:
Wellington Central is proving to be a closer fight - Grant Robertson is winning by a margin of 1,384 over National’s Stephen Franks.

10.30pm:
John Campbell is interviewing Roger Douglas who finds himself back in Parliament. What sort of influence is he likely to have in John Key’s government? He’ll likely be hard to keep in line, and poor old Rodney is going to have a hard job keeping control over the man who started the party.

10.33pm:
Grant Robertson wins Wellington Central with majority of 1,511.

10.34pm:
Praise the lord - Peter Dunne has only himself for company - and he thinks that he is going to make a difference. Except that if National has the majority it currently has then it can afford to ignore Dunne entirely. Dunne’s majority reduced from 7,500 to 1,171.

10.37pm:
John Key is currently on a 17,666 majority in Helensville.

10.40pm:
National win Auckland Central meaning that Judith Tizard is likely to be tossed out of Parliament because she’s a long way down on the party list.

10.42pm:
Jeanette Fitzsimons is delivering her speech at the Hopetoun Alpha in Auckland. With 6.5% of the party vote the Greens have added two extra MP’s into the house. While they were expecting to get 8% or more this is a good outcome. Jeanette says this gives the Greens a stronger voice in Parliament, but will John Key need to listen to them?

10.45pm:
West Coast Tasman has been won by National with a majority of 975.

10.47pm:
Parekura Horomia wins Ikaroa Räwhiti against Derek Fox, who the Maori Party was convinced had a good chance of winning. Horomia’s majority is 1,609.

10.51pm:
Annette King wins Rongotai with majority of 7,845.

10.57pm:
Helen Clark’s parents leave her house. It is expected that Clark will give her concession speech to Key in five minutes or so. The swing to National is 5.7%, to ACT 2.2%, away from Labour 6.9%. Overall a swing to the right.

11.02pm:
10,666 people voted for the Bill and Ben Party - firm proof that there are 10,666 very stupid people.

11.07pm:
99% of the vote is counted and projected seats are:

• National 59 seats
• Labour 43 seats
• Green 8 seats
• ACT 5 seats
• Maori 5 seats
• Jim Anderton Progressive 1 seat
• United Future 1 seat

11.12pm:
John Key has the current biggest majority of any candidate leading Helensville by 18,404.

11.14pm:
Helen Clark leaves her house to go to Labour Party HQ. No doubt she has already called Key.

11.26pm:
Helen Clark arrives at Labour HQ. The party faithful whistel and cheer as she walks into the building. A sea of red on the stage. There’s only one man on stage - Helen Clark’s father.

She knows her people - she greets them all in their native tongue.

She congratulates John Key. There are tears in the audience as she declares that Labour will not be going away. She takes responsibility for the loss. She acknowledges the Labour Party achievements over the last nine years.

This is a time for re-building. There will be around 12 new Labour members of parliament. She thanks departing members and hopes that all Labour’s achievemnts don’t go up in smoke under a right-wing government.

11.30pm:
Helen Clark declares her intention to stand down as leader and hopes that Labour can appoint a new leader before Christmas (please please let it not be David Cunliffe). She leaves the building.

A gracious speech, she looked like a weight had been lifted from her shoulders. And to stand down shows great maturity in politics.

11.33pm:
John Key leaves his $6.8 million mansion in Parnell to drive to Sky City as the newly elected Prime Minister of New Zealand. The man who always wanted to be Prime Minister has realised his boyhood ambition.

11.41pm:
Matthew Hooton on TV3 made a good point in that Helen Clark has chnaged the face of the National Party. Helen Clark reveals it was always her intention to step down if National won. She reveals the polling was different to their own internal polls and that they had expected a different result (but perhaps still not a win). She wouldn’t reveal what Key had said to her.

11.44pm:
John Key arrives at Sky City. He looks as pleased as punch - like a grinning school boy. He is completely surrounded by security detail who lock arms to escort him into the auditorium.

11.48pm:
John Key is on stage. He hugs his children.

“Today NZ has spoken…they have voted for change…and I can tell you there will be a new National led government in NZ…thankyou for your support and thankyou for your trust…they voted for hope, they voted for action, they voted for results…this is not as good as it gets…yes, we face challenges and we will rise to them…we must make the most of our advantages…the road ahead may well be a rocky one…what will determine success will be a unity of purpose…and the success of individuals…now is the time for working together…if we work hard…we will make NZ prosperous as we all know NZ can be…tonight you have my pledge…it will be a government that values individual achievement…a government we can all be part of…tonight I want to thank Helen Clark…she was most gracious with her comments…we share a love of this country…as PM of NZ she has always ensured our small voice was loudly heard…for that I say thankyou…I sopke to ACT leader Rodney Hide…and Peter Dunne…and while future details are yet to be resolved they will lend their support to establishing a new government in NZ…”

Seems to be this is the speech of the campaign…if he had done speeches like this for the last 5 weeks more might have voted for him.

12.09pm:
So we have a new government. We shouldn’t expect any miracles. Roger Douglas will be a problem. Rodney is going to have his hands full managing that problem, and so will John Key by association.

John Campbell interviews John Key. “We’re going to deliver on all our promises…”

“There’ll be a rocky road ahead…we can get through this together…moderate pragmatic government…that’s exactly what we’re going to do…it’s a close run thing…there’s a majority there but it’s not huge…great feeling but a nerve wracking night as well…”

Given the mood of the nation and the mood of the National supporters in the Sky City hotel it’s quite obvious that the pundits who believed John Key would be rolled by Bill English in his first term are wrong. This is John Key’s night - it’s John Key’s party - it’s John Key’s success that got National the win. Having Bill English take the leadership just can’t and shouldn’t happen.

As I prepare to finish this the NY Times sends me an update with news that unemployment is at a 14 year high in the US.

John Key has become Prime Minister at a terrible time, or a great time if he really, really likes a challenge.

Good luck.

Jenni McManus wins the Leaders Debate

Bloody hell - what a bore watching John Key and Helen Clark talk about nothing.

But, how fantastic listening to the commentators afterwards discuss the debate. Jenni McManus in particular stood out. Here are a few choice quotes from her.

On Trust:

I think particularly after last Friday night with his redundancy package I don’t think there’s a single policy or principle that he wouldn’t trade to become Prime Minister.

On the Economy:

I think what we do need is change. We don’t need the safe pair of hands that Helen Clark is talking about - we need a change agent. Now I’m not sure that John Key is that change agent. Their policies are so similar in the only area that matters, which is the economy.

On Leadership:

Well, we’re not getting any particularly (leadership). I mean, we’ve got a woman there haranguing everybody in sight and we’ve got a very timid leader of the National Party who’s afraid to open his trap - so I mean, you know - spot the difference.